Spring brings renewed price growth across Metro Vancouver’s housing market while new listings remain dormant

Home prices across Metro Vancouver’s housing market showed modest increases in March, while new listings remained below long-term historical averages.  

March data also indicates home sales are making a stronger than expected spring showing so far, despite elevated borrowing costs. 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,535 in March 2023, a 42.5 per cent decrease from the 4,405 sales recorded in March 2022, and 28.4 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,540). 

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,143,900. This represents a 9.5 per cent decrease over March 2022 and a 1.8 per cent increase compared to February 2023. 

“On the pricing side, the spring market is already on track to outpace our 2023 forecast, which anticipated modest price increases of about one to two per cent across all product types,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “The surprising part of this recent activity is that these price increases are occurring against a backdrop of elevated borrowing costs, below-average sales, and new listing activity that continues to suggest that sellers are awaiting more favorable market conditions.” 

There were 4,317 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in March 2023. This represents a 35.5 per cent decrease compared to the 6,690 homes listed in March 2022, and was 22.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,553). 

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,617, an 8.1 per cent increase compared to March 2022 (7,970), and 17.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (10,421). 

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2023 is 30.7 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 23.3 per cent for detached homes, 36.7 per cent for townhomes, and 34.9 per cent for apartments. 

Analysis of historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months. 

“If home sellers remain on the sidelines, monthly MLS® sales figures will continue to appear lower than historical averages as we move toward summer,” Lis said. “But it’s important to recognize the chicken-and-egg nature of these statistics. The number of sales in any given month is partially determined by the number of homes that come to market that month, along with the inventory of unsold homes listed in previous months. With fewer homes coming on the market, homes sales will remain lower than we’re accustomed to seeing at this point in the year, almost entirely by definition.” 

Sales of detached homes in March 2023 reached 734, a 43.6 per cent decrease from the 1,302 detached sales recorded in March 2022. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,861,800. This represents an 11.2 per cent decrease from March 2022 and a 2.7 per cent increase compared to February 2023. 

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,311 in March 2023, a 43.2 per cent decrease compared to the 2,310 sales in March 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $737,400. This represents a 4.6 per cent decrease from March 2022 and a 0.7 per cent increase compared to February 2023. 

Attached home sales in March 2023 totalled 466, a 37.3 per cent decrease compared to the 743 sales in March 2022. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,056,400. This represents a 7.8 per cent decrease from March 2022 and a 1.7 per cent increase compared to February 2023. 

Download the March 2023 stats package.

Below average home sales allow inventory to inch upwards

February listing data show a continued reluctance among prospective home sellers to engage in Metro Vancouver’s housing market, leading to below-average sales activity. With sales remaining well-below historical norms, the number of available homes for sale in the region have continued inching upwards. 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,808 in February 2023, a 47.2 per cent decrease from the 3,424 sales recorded in February 2022, and a 76.9 per cent increase from the 1,022 homes sold in January 2023. 

Last month’s sales were 33 per cent below the 10-year February sales average. 

“It’s hard to sell what you don’t have, and with new listing activity remaining among the lowest in recent history, sales are struggling to hit typical levels for this point in the year,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics. “On the plus side for prospective buyers, the below-average sales activity is allowing inventory to accumulate, which is keeping market conditions from straying too deeply into sellers’ market territory, particularly in the more affordably priced segments.”

 
There were 3,467 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in February 2023. This represents a 36.6 per cent decrease compared to the 5,471 homes listed in February 2022 and a 5.2 per cent increase compared to January 2023 when 3,297 homes were listed. 

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,868, a 16.7 per cent increase compared to February 2022 (6,742) and a 5.2 per cent increase compared to January 2023 (7,478). 

“While we continue to expect home price trends to show year-over-year declines for a few more months, current data and market activity suggest pricing is firming up. In fact, some leading indicators suggest we may see modest price increases this spring, particularly if sales activity increases and mortgage rates hold steady,” Lis said. “In the somewhat unusual market environment we find ourselves in right now with higher mortgage rates, fewer sales, and inventory that is inching higher but remains far from abundant, working with a Realtor who understands your local market conditions and has experience navigating challenging markets is paramount.” 

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2023 is 23 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 16.8 per cent for detached homes, 30.1 per cent for townhomes, and 25.8 per cent for apartments. 

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months. 

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,123,400. This represents a 9.3 per cent decrease over February 2022 and a 1.1 per cent increase compared to January 2023. 

Sales of detached homes in February 2023 reached 514, a 49.1 per cent decrease from the 1,010 detached sales recorded in February 2022. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,813,100. This represents a 12 per cent decrease from February 2022 and a 0.7 per cent increase compared to January 2023. 

Sales of apartment homes reached 928 in February 2023, a 49.9 per cent decrease compared to the 1,854 sales in February 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $732,200. This represents a three per cent decrease from February 2022 and a 1.6 per cent increase compared to January 2023. 

Attached home sales in February 2023 totalled 366, a 34.6 per cent decrease compared to the 560 sales in February 2022. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,038,500. This represents a 6.3 per cent decrease from February 2022 and a 1.8 per cent increase compared to January 2023. 

Download the February 2023 stats package.

Home sale and listing activity continue trending below long-term averages in November

While typically a quiet month of market activity based on seasonal patterns, November home sale and listing totals lagged below the region’s long-term averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,614 in November 2022, a 52.9 per cent decrease from the 3,428 sales recorded in November 2021, and a 15.2 per cent decrease from the 1,903 homes sold in October 2022.

Last month’s sales were 36.9 per cent below the 10-year November sales average.

“With the most recent core inflation metrics showing a stubborn reluctance to respond significantly to the furious pace of rate increases, the Bank of Canada may choose to act more forcefully to bring inflation back toward target levels.” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics said. “While it’s always difficult to predict what the bank will do with certainty, this persistent inflationary backdrop sets up the December 6 rate announcement to be yet another increase, making holiday-season home sales something many people may end up foregoing this year.”

There were 3,055 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in November 2022. This represents a 22.9 per cent decrease compared to the 3,964 homes listed in November 2021 and a 24.2 per cent decrease compared to October 2022 when sellers listed 4,033 homes.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,179, a 28.5 per cent increase compared to November 2021 (7,144) and a 6.8 per cent decrease compared to October 2022 (9,852).

“Heading into 2023, the market continues the trend of shifting toward historical averages and typical seasonal norms,” Lis said. “Whether these trends continue will depend on looming economic factors and forthcoming housing policy measures on the horizon, which hold the potential to reignite uncertainty in our market.

“With that said, from a long-term structural standpoint, the current pace of listings and available inventory remain relatively tight when considered against a backdrop of continued in-migration to the province. With the recently announced increase in federal immigration targets, the state of available supply in our market remains one demand surge away from renewed price escalation, despite the inflationary environment and elevated mortgage rates.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2022 is 17.6 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 13.2 per cent for detached homes, 19.7 per cent for townhomes, and 20.8 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,131,600. This represents a 0.6 per cent decrease over November 2021, a 10.2 per cent decrease over the last six months, and a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Sales of detached homes in November 2022 reached 486, a 50.8 per cent decrease from the 987 detached sales recorded in November 2021. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,856,800. This represents a 1.7 per cent decrease from November 2021 and a 1.9 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Sales of apartment homes reached 847 in November 2022, a 53.7 per cent decrease compared to the 1,828 sales in November 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $720,500. This represents a 3.5 per cent increase from November 2021 and a 0.9 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Attached home sales in November 2022 totalled 281, a 54.2 per cent decrease compared to the 613 sales in November 2021. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,027,900. This represents a 2.7 per cent increase from November 2021 and a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to October 2022.

Download the November 2022 stats package.